Monday, 9 September 2019

"I get worried when no one is worried about the market"


Editor, Lawrence working in his office with Bloomberg news running constantly
Quote of the day. Regarding financial markets.

"I get worried when no one is worried about the market"

I heard the above quote from an analyst on Bloomberg news this morning.
It is a simple way of saying you must be contrarian in the investment markets to be a winner.

If everybody thinks the market is going to go up it's probably going to go down and vice versa. The majority is always wrong about investments.

“The majority is always wrong about investments.”

It's hard being a contrarian and go against the trend. I, like most naïve investors 40 years ago was one of those who always bought things after I heard that it was a great investment on the news.

Then after losing money and finally befriending one of the top financial experts in the world and mirroring his philosophy I adopted his philosophy that you must be a contrarian to win in the investment markets, including real estate.
Editor, Lawrence speaking at an investment conference in Hong Kong 15 years ago
When you watch the financial news, as I do, on a separate monitor right next to my computer for 3 to 5 hours each day it’s psychologically difficult to take a position going against most of the people who are speaking on the financial networks. They all sound so intelligent and they have good arguments for buying the investments that they’re recommending.
Lawrence in his Bali office 2018
But remember those so-called experts probably already have a position for themselves and their clients in whatever they're recommending, and they want you to buy more, therefore driving up their position.

One thing I've learned after watching Bloomberg news almost daily for over 10 years now is “if most of the analysts who are interviewed on Bloomberg recommend buying an investment it is probably time to sell it”.

“If most of the analysts who are interviewed on Bloomberg recommend buying an investment it is probably time to sell it”.

Those of us that have learned how to be a contrarian know how to make substantial profits in a short time.

For example, two years ago when everyone was saying Bali real estate was terrible after its the first downturn in modern history, which lasted two years, I said "this is the second-best time to buy Bali real estate this century.

"This is the second-best time to buy Bali real estate this century.”


I spent a fair amount of time and money on seminars to teach skeptical crowds that it was time to buy.

 Few took my advice and are now regretting that decision because prices have already increased by 5% to 20% and are going up exponentially.

With prices of real estate in Bali now as much is 50% off their March 2014 prices Bali real estate is on sale at a bargain price.

Investors must use the same strategy they use when they buy things on sale at stores not after it's gone up in value substantially.

New Luxury Villas for Investors and Baby Boomers:

Therefore, at a ripe old age, I’ve come out of semi retirement and started a brand-new real estate development to cater to investors and those who are semi or fully retired, especially baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964.


We are building right now brand-new 200 m2 Bali luxury villas 200 m from the beach starting as low as $184,888. The title is freehold for Indonesians. For foreigners, we will provide up to 80 years of leases included in that price. 
200 M2 , 2 Bedrm 2 bath Starting at $184,888
© Bali Luxury Retirement Villas starting as low as * $184,888

This is an unbelievable price for a two-bedroom two-bathroom luxury villa close to a beautiful beach.
Beach only 200 m from BLRV
They will not last long. We’ve started marketing to Australia and throughout Asia and receiving a very favourable response. Those who purchase first will save $10,000 USD.

Excellent Investment Returns:

As far as the investment potential, let me make it simple for you.
When you buy one of these $184,888 villas and you have 80 years of leases that works out to $192 per month.

Those in the know understand a villa like this in Bali will rent for $1,500-$2,000 per month long-term. Forget about the tourists. 

So, what is the profit potential?

As per the chart below you can see we expect that there will be not only rental income but appreciation for the first half of the lease and then primarily rental income.

The net result is that you can earn a potential of $1 million-$2 million on your approximately $200,000 investment for you and for your heirs while at the same time have the pride of owning a Bali Luxury Villa and use it whenever it’s empty.

FOR MORE INFO PLEASE CALL OR EMAIL US: Tel: 62-361-284069 Mobile or Whatsapp 62-812-3814014 Email: infoBLRV@gmail.com
© Bali Luxury Retirement Villas starting as low as * $184,888

Disclaimer: All information presented above is considered true and reliable to the best of our knowledge at the time that it was published. Information and prices may change without notice. The owners of PT. BALI AFFORDABLE LIFESTYLES INTERNATIONAL doing business as BEST ASIA REAL ESTATE and PT. BALI LUXURY VILLAS accept no responsibility for incorrect information listed herein. All recommendations may lose value in the future.

Bali Luxury Retirement Villas  as low as * $184,888 U.S.D. ($268,888 Aus.)

Check out our Brand New © Bali Luxury Retirement Villas starting as low as * $184,888 U.S.D. ($268,888 Aus. at today's exchange rate).
200 M2 , 2 Bedrm 2 bath Starting at $184,888
© Bali Luxury Retirement Villas starting as low as * $184,888



You may now Invest, Vacation or retire full time or part-time in Bali while achieving very handsome returns over the 80 years of leases included in the purchase price starting at $184,888 USD.


Pretty well everything you need to know including location, prices, and designs plus information on Bali and Bali retirement visas is available on our web site © Bali Luxury Retirement Villas starting as low as * $184,888

The information available on our website:


Our 14-year-old Bali company Pt. Bali Affordable Lifestyles International (PT. B.A.L.I.) with over 100 + staff and thousands of satisfied clients guarantee completion of any villas purchased now in 2020. 

We are a Ten-Year Consecutive “Certificate of Excellence” recipient on the Worlds Largest Travel Site and was awarded their "Hall of Fame Award", in 2019. This is awarded to only 2 % of the Hotels & Villas listed on TripAdvisor Worldwide"

Conclusion:

These villas offer you an opportunity to own a luxury home on arguably the Best Island in the world with some of the greatest weather, lowest cost of living, clean air, and friendliest people.


There is already a growing population of baby boomers and retirees taking full-time residence in Bali. We have experience in handling over 100 Bali Villa Sales transactions over the last 15 years and now believe that this will be the largest, and most profitable demand to hit Bali in decades.

Profit Now Move in Later:


You may not be ready to pack up and move to Bali in the next few years.

So, you may purchase now at these ridiculously low prices and we can normally rent them out for you for a monthly income of $2,000 to $2,500 U.S.D. per month. ($2,877 to $3,600 Aus.).

Our 15-year-old “Hall of Fame” the award-winning management company that manages villas for V.I.P.s such as the former director of General Electric and Ritz Carlton can provide substantial net monthly income to supplement your pension while providing a carefree rental unit. 

Confused? We understand that you may have concerns that we may not have even thought of, so feel free to ask whatever questions you wish.

We do not want you to even think about purchasing our © Bali Luxury Retirement Villas unless you are 100% convinced that they are safe, and perfect for you and your family.

Limited Offer: Save $10,000:

As with any new project we are anxious to sell the first few villas.

We have one already on hold and are only willing to offer one other villa at a $10,000 discount. First come first serve.

Free Stay in Luxury Estate:
If you wish to fly over and see the location first after you place a $2,000 USD Deposit we will offer you free accommodations in a 4 bdrm. 5 bath luxury beach view estate with a private 14 m pool for three days within walking distance of the location.

When you decide to conclude the purchase, we will extend the free estate accommodation for an additional four days.

Should you decide not to continue with the purchase we will refund your $2,000 Deposit minus $200.00 for the three-day stay.

Thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule to review this information and information on the website. If there is any further information we can provide you please do not hesitate to ask.

Cheers, THE SALES TEAM © Bali Luxury Retirement Villas

PLEASE CALL OR EMAIL US: Tel: 62-361-284069 Mobile or Whatsapp 62-812-3814014 Email: infoBLRV@gmail.com

Features of© Bali Luxury Retirement Villas starting as low as * $184,888

• 100% legal for foreigners.
• Includes leases totaling 80 yrs.
• Private carport included.
• Private 8 m (27 Ft.) pool** for leisurely laps.
• Only 200 Mtr. To a fabulous beach, restaurants, beach clubs.
• Great investment for you and your heirs.
• Private Housekeepers & drivers, only $200 MTh.
• Healthcare at a fraction of Western costs.
• Brand-new hospital within five minutes.
• Award-winning international Airport 35 min.
• Proximity to Sanur, Ubud, Denpasar.
• Walking distance to affordable restaurants and beach clubs
• Shared low costs of pool man and gardeners.
• Minuscule monthly common area fees.
• Managed by 15-year-old, Hall of Fame award-winning management company
• *Price of the least expensive villa in U.S.D. after $10,000 Discount for the first two villas only. Subject to change without notice.
• **Eight-meter first-class swimming pool Only U.S.D. $28,888 Extra

P.S. We also have several larger villas available from two-bedroom www.baliluxuryvillasales.com
Starting as low as $158,888.
 to four-bedroom www.baliparadiseestates.com
starting as low as $158,888. The leases on these units vary from 34 years to nine years remaining.

Please contact us if you wish for further information. Tel: 62-361-284069 Mobile or Whatsapp 62-812-3814014 Email: infoBLRV@gmail.com





Wednesday, 4 September 2019

Australia braces for the Chinese international student bust

MACROBUSINESS


By Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy

at 12:07 am on September 4, 2019 | 33 comments

Chinese international students are by far the biggest contributor to Australia’s education export industry.

As at June 2019, there were 204,000 Chinese students enrolled in Australian educational institutions, comprising 29% of total international student enrolments.

The number of Chinese international students studying in Australia is also roughly double second placed India (104,000) and quadruple Nepal (52,000), as illustrated in the next chart:

In terms of financial dependence, Australia’s reliance on Chinese international students is even greater, accounting for 40% of Australia’s $35 billion international student market in 2018, according to the Department of Education.

Late last month, the Centre for Independent Studies (CIS) sounded the alarm on this dependence, warning that a sharp pullback in Chinese student numbers could severely damage the finances of Australia’s tertiary institutions:


International comparisons reveal the excessiveness of this China exposure. All seven [major universities] have higher proportions of international and Chinese students than any university in the entire United States. Indeed, all seven appear to be more dependent on feepaying Chinese students than just about any other universities in the English-speaking world.

Australia’s universities do not seem to understand the high levels of financial risk inherent in their overreliance on the Chinese market…

Approximately 10% of all students now attending an Australian university hail from China…

Chinese enrolments are particularly unstable because of macroeconomic risk factors such as the slowing of China’s economy, the lack of full convertibility of the Chinese yuan, and fluctuations in the value of the yuan versus the Australian dollar. Of the nine potential risk factors identified in this report that could adversely affect Chinese student numbers, macroeconomic risks are by far the most serious (from a financial perspective) because they could lead to a sudden and severe fall in Chinese enrolments.

On Monday, Alan Kohler joined the procession warning that the US-China trade war could lead to a sharp fall in Chinese international students, which would smash Australia’s universities:

…the most significant threat is not to resources exports, which China needs, but to Australian education, which it doesn’t…

There are currently more than 150,000 Chinese students in Australia… They could easily be accommodated in China’s burgeoning universities.

One vice-chancellor told me last week that for his university the yield (profit margin) from domestic students was 22 per cent, whereas for international students he gets to keep 62 per cent to spend on infrastructure…

If Chinese students stopped coming because of Australia’s alliance with the United States, there would be no fallback and the effect on university funding would be devastating.

…all [vice chancellors] are worried. They remember too clearly the 50 per cent drop in Indian students in 2009 caused by a small but high-profile spate of attacks on them as well as a change to visa policy.

Kohler is right. Unlike commodities, Australia has no genuine comparative advantage in education, other than offering residency, and China’s students could easily be accommodated either domestically or within other developed nations.

As shown by the first chart above, Chinese student enrolments are already slowing, whereas official student visa data from the Department of Home Affairs recording a 3.3% fall in visa applications from China in the second half of 2018:

And China just choked capital flows to international students, via Nikkei:


As China allows the yuan to depreciate to a level not seen in 11 years, financial authorities have rolled out measures to stem capital outflows from the mainland.

The new rules include stricter oversight of banks in times of capital flight and restrictions on real estate developers’ access to foreign currency bonds. If the financial system is judged to be on the brink on instability, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, or SAFE, will declare the situation “abnormal.”

Under that assessment level, banks will be evaluated on the amount of yuan wired offshore and the volume of foreign currency sold. If the levels stray too far from the national average, the bank’s grade will diminish. Such lenders will then face limits on banking activities.

China is tolerating the softer yuan to ease the impact on domestic exporters during the prolonged U.S. trade war. But the government looks to avoid a repeat of 2015, when currency traders dumped the yuan after authorities lowered the reference rate.

…SAFE has also ordered lenders to request extra documentation before signing off on offshore remittances. If a parent wishes to pay school expenses for a student studying abroad, an acceptance letter must be presented. To transfer money for other reasons, documents such as a work permit must be furnished.

…”Wiring money overseas is not allowed for the purposes of purchasing real estate or insurance products,” said a representative at a second-tier Chinese bank.

With more such controls ahead as the yuan falls.

Whether it comes by geopolitical fiat, or by the insurmountable laws of economics, Australia’s tertiary institutions must ready themselves for the inevitable crash in Chinese international student enrolments.
____________________________
Bali Luxury Retirement Villas  as low as * $184,888 U.S.D. ($268,888 Aus.)

Check out our Brand New © Bali Luxury Retirement Villas starting as low as * $184,888 U.S.D. ($268,888 Aus. at today's exchange rate).

Starting at $184,888 USD
You may now Invest, Vacation or retire full time or part-time in Bali while achieving very handsome returns over the 80 years of leases included in the purchase price starting at $184,888 USD.

Pretty well everything you need to know including location, prices, and designs plus information on Bali and Bali retirement visas is available on our web site https://www.baliluxuryretirementvillas.com.

The information available on our website:


Our 14-year-old Bali company Pt. Bali Affordable Lifestyles International (PT. B.A.L.I.) with over 100 + staff and thousands of satisfied clients guarantee completion of any villas purchased now in 2020. 

We are a Ten-Year Consecutive “Certificate of Excellence” recipient on the Worlds Largest Travel Site and was awarded their "Hall of Fame Award", in 2019. This is awarded to only 2 % of the Hotels & Villas listed on TripAdvisor Worldwide"

Conclusion:

These villas offer you an opportunity to own a luxury home on arguably the Best Island in the world with some of the greatest weather, lowest cost of living, clean air, and friendliest people.


There is already a growing population of baby boomers and retirees taking full-time residence in Bali. We have experience in handling over 100 Bali Villa Sales transactions over the last 15 years and now believe that this will be the largest, and most profitable demand to hit Bali in decades.

Profit Now Move in Later:


You may not be ready to pack up and move to Bali in the next few years.

So, you may purchase now at these ridiculously low prices and we can normally rent them out for you for a monthly income of $2,000 to $2,500 U.S.D. per month. ($2,877 to $3,600 Aus.).

Our 15-year-old “Hall of Fame” the award-winning management company that manages villas for V.I.P.s such as the former director of General Electric and Ritz Carlton can provide substantial net monthly income to supplement your pension while providing a carefree rental unit. 

Confused? We understand that you may have concerns that we may not have even thought of, so feel free to ask whatever questions you wish.

We do not want you to even think about purchasing our © Bali Luxury Retirement Villas unless you are 100% convinced that they are safe, and perfect for you and your family.

Limited Offer: Save $10,000:

As with any new project we are anxious to sell the first few villas.

We have one already on hold and are only willing to offer one other villa at a $10,000 discount. First come first serve.

Free Stay in Luxury Estate:
If you wish to fly over and see the location first after you place a $2,000 USD Deposit we will offer you free accommodations in a 4 bdrm. 5 bath luxury beach view estate with a private 14 m pool for three days within walking distance of the location.

When you decide to conclude the purchase, we will extend the free estate accommodation for an additional four days.

Should you decide not to continue with the purchase we will refund your $2,000 Deposit minus $200.00 for the three-day stay.

Thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule to review this information and information on the website. If there is any further information we can provide you please do not hesitate to ask.

Cheers, THE SALES TEAM © Bali Luxury Retirement Villas

PLEASE CALL OR EMAIL US: Tel: 62-361-284069 Mobile or Whatsapp 62-812-3814014 Email: infoBLRV@gmail.com

Features of© Bali Luxury Retirement Villas starting as low as * $184,888


• 100% legal for foreigners.
• Includes leases totaling 80 yrs.
• Private carport included.
• Private 8 m (27 Ft.) pool** for leisurely laps.
• Only 200 Mtr. To a fabulous beach, restaurants, beach clubs.
• Great investment for you and your heirs.
• Private Housekeepers & drivers, only $200 MTh.
• Healthcare at a fraction of Western costs.
• Brand-new hospital within five minutes.
• Award-winning international Airport 35 min.
• Proximity to Sanur, Ubud, Denpasar.
• Walking distance to affordable restaurants and beach clubs
• Shared low costs of pool man and gardeners.
• Minuscule monthly common area fees.
• Managed by 15-year-old, Hall of Fame award-winning management company
• *Price of the least expensive villa in U.S.D. after $10,000 Discount for the first two villas only. Subject to change without notice.
• **Eight-meter first-class swimming pool Only U.S.D. $28,888 Extra

P.S. We also have several larger villas available from two-bedroom www.baliluxuryvillasales.com
Starting as low as $158,888.
 to four-bedroom www.baliparadiseestates.com
starting as low as $158,888. The leases on these units vary from 34 years to nine years remaining.

Please contact us if you wish for further information. Tel: 62-361-284069 Mobile or Whatsapp 62-812-3814014 Email: infoBLRV@gmail.com


"I get worried when no one is worried about the market"

Editor, Lawrence working in his office with Bloomberg news running constantly Quote of the day. Regarding financial markets. &qu...